by Nnaoke Ufere, PhD
Historians acknowledge that much of political and social change are triggered not by the existing political parties and legacy politicians, but by rare, unexpected and unpredictable big events steered by a new visionary leader.
Such rare and surprising events are what Nassim Nicholas Taleb metaphorically called Black Swans. In black swan events, the improbable is possible. Examples in political and social change include the French, Russian and Chinese revolutions which resulted in the liberation of the oppressed and dispossessed.
There are two kinds of black swan events: the positive and negative. In this essay, I will focus on the positive kind, with exponential positive impact on society.
You see, as humans we are conditioned to expect all swans to be white because that’s what our experience tells us; a black swan is, therefore, a rarity and a big surprise.
Similarly, some legacy political elites expect the APC or PDP candidate to win because that’s what they are familiar with over the lost decades when both parties mismanaged Nigeria.
However, the growing strength of the Labour Party (LP) and the stunning enthusiasm and popularity of Peter Obi’s candidacy is looking more like a positive black swan event, an outlier that lies beyond the realm of normal political experience.
The strength and forward momentum of Peter Obi’s candidacy is supported by a recent poll of 3,973 Nigerians reported by Bloomberg News. Seventy-two percent (72%) of decided voters named Obi as their first choice for president. Tinubu was a far 2nd with 16% only, and Atiku came in with 9%.
It’s a failure of the imagination not to accept the possibility that Obi can win.
Still political writers and partisan commentators fret that Peter Obi’s chances are limited given the APC’s political dominance and structural advantages, with the PDP playing a spoiler role.
But they forget the lessons from how the once dominant Indian National Congress Party, which governed for over seven decades, collapsed under its weight of mismanagement by a dynasty of elites. Bharatiya Janata Party, a younger party, is today the largest political party in India, uniting a diverse coalition of fed-up voters.
If you listen to the talking heads and read the naysayers, Peter Obi winning is an improbability based on their limited conventional thinking and normative partisan beliefs. But something more sinister is afoot. The insinuation that Obi can’t win, is an insidious plan to sow disbelief in the possibility of him winning and to discourage voters from casting their votes for Obi.
However, for Peter Obi to win, we must first suspend disbelief in the possibility of him winning. We must ignore the naysayers – they are paid propagandists. Suspension of disbelief is an essential ingredient for the improbable to become possible, that is, for Obi to win.
Make no mistake, the 2023 presidential election is shaping up to be the most consequential election in the history of our nation. One important characteristic of black swan events is the numerous turns and twists as unexpected events unfold. So, buckle your seat belts.
The shocking tipping points may include:
1. The unprecedented mobilization of millions of fed-up Nigerians from all socioeconomic backgrounds.
2. The unusual and unexpected huge voter turnout as a result of the “Obi Effect”, especially among the youth, unemployed, poor and oppressed.
3. And the startling “January Surprise” that will turn the improbable run into an epic win for Peter Obi in February.
What The Labour Part Must Do To Win
1. Obi must speak plainly and directly to the heart of the problems faced by ordinary people and the root causes: elite corruption, unemployment, income inequality, poverty, educational and health disparities, homelessness, high costs of living, insecurity, mass suffering and deaths of despair.
He must tie the APC and PDP directly to these problems and why they are the wrong party to solve them. In the face of these problems, the LP has an important story to tell and lifesaving policies to enact.
2. Obi must articulate in a layman’s terms how his plans will solve these problems and why he should be president and not Tinubu or Atiku. The contrast must be framed around the differences in his ambition for Nigeria and his strategic plan versus his opponents’ and how his opponents are rooted in the past with nothing new to offer. Tinubu’s only motivation is his selfish obsession to be president. Solving the peoples’ problems is not of interest to him. Atiku is a five-time unsuccessful presidential candidate. There must be something about him that makes him unfit for the job. And voters know it. It’s his blind ambition and nothing more. The APC and PDP have ruled for decades, and nothing has changed. It’s time for change. It’s time to deliver tangible results to the people. Only Obi can deliver.
3. Obi’s winning constituency is ordinarily people, not the elites. He must speak in the words and language of ordinary Nigerians. For example, from Jalingo to Jambaki, citizens don’t care about or understand what Obi means by “productive economy” or “inflationary pressure.” What they care about is getting jobs, getting employed! They want living wages, they want lower costs for food and household items, and affordable housing and healthcare for their family. They don’t care about “security architecture.” What they care about is the freedom to move around freely without fear of being robbed, kidnapped and killed.
4. The LP must put thousands of local boots on the ground in all 36 states and the FCT. They must translate Mr. Obi’s manifesto into native dialects ordinary people can understand and act on.
5. It’s time for the LP to assert itself as a legitimate Opposition Party, not just another 3rd party. That means taking the war to the APC and PDP. There’s so much evidence of their corruption and mismanagement to paint them as the cause of suffering nationwide and as the enemy of the people. Honest negative political advertising works. Use it.
6. It’s time for mass mobilization at the grassroots from Daura to Bula, from Bida to Illesa, from Bukuru to Nguru, and everywhere. The most powerful way to elect Peter Obi is by empowering ordinary people to talk directly to voters, encouraging them to support the LP. When in Jalingo, you speak their lingo. Don’t send someone from Mbaise (Imo) as surrogate to canvass voters in Mayana (Zamfara). Send Mayana native speakers to Mayana. Consequently, the LP needs trained native supporters canvassing in all local communities, door-to-door and in their own native dialects.
7. It’s time to leverage the power of social media, podcasts, TV, direct phone bank calling, text messaging, viral videos, etc. to reach, mobilize and motivate youths around the country to turn out and vote. LP should build a simple voter app to alert voters and incentivize them to go and vote.
8. Obi should unleash thousands of local influencers, not the discredited ones, to support and propagate his core messages of full employment, living wages, lower food costs, peace, prosperity, stability and security. The influencers should engage voters in local churches, mosques, marketplaces, universities, trade unions, army bases and on the streets.
Our Last Chance
This is our last chance to elect a leader who can rescue the nation from the precipice of ruin created by the lost decades of corruption and mismanagement by the APC and PDP presidents.
The majority of Nigerians are sufficiently disgusted with the APC and PDP. There are enough of disgusted voters for Obi to win if only voters can muster the will to reject the tribal and religious politics of the APC and PDP and vote for Obi.
Peter Obi is the right leader to bridge not only generations but ideologies that often divide us – tribalism, religion, exclusivism, and regionalism. His economic and security agenda will unite the nation and bring prosperity and peace for all law-abiding citizens.
In sum, the metaphor of the black swan ought to sensitize and normalize us to the possibility of a rare and positive change in our country.
Those who raise doubts about Obi’s chances of winning are notoriously unimaginative people. They seem to discount Obi and the Labour Party as neophytes. They do so because they want to weaken voters’ resolve to kick the APC and PDP out of office. Don’t listen to them.
Amid all the hype surrounding Tinubu and Atiku, they are dinosaurs and represent the past. Paraphrasing Albert Einstein, Tinubu and Atiku can’t solve our problems with the same thinking used by their party presidents who created them for decades. A vote for Tinubu and Atiku is a vote for Buhari 2.0. They can’t drive the country forward by looking in the rearview mirror. No sane Nigerian wants a repeat of the nightmare that was Buhari.
Above all, don’t accept the Judas bribe from APC and PDP to betray Obi and cast your vote for Tinubu or Atiku. Not this time. Our votes are not for sale. This is our last chance as patriotic citizens to use our votes to restore our humanity and enhance the dignity of all Nigerians.
The improbable is possible. Go and vote. Tell your friends to vote. Vote for Peter Obi.
