By Nnaoke Ufere, PhD
The wave of uninformed optimism surrounding the newly announced ADC coalition is both troubling and dangerous. Fueled by the chorus line “anyone but Tinubu,” this familiar pattern of desperation politics is driven more by emotional rejection of the incumbent than by rational assessment of the alternatives. History shows that such impulses rarely produce better leadership and often result in outcomes far worse than the status quo.
This chant, now gaining momentum, is not new. The current cry of “anyone but Tinubu” repeats the same flawed logic that once gave us “anyone but Jonathan.” That “anyone” turned out to be the late President Buhari (may his soul rest in peace), and the consequences were disastrous for the country.
History, it seems, taught us little. When Buhari’s presidency collapsed under the weight of failure, the refrain shifted again to “anyone but Buhari.” And what did that deliver? Tinubu, whose reckless misgovernance has not only prolonged the suffering we hoped to end but has dragged the nation into an even deeper and more catastrophic decline. The scale of the damage is not just immense, it is still unfolding before our eyes.
Despite this, cries of “anyone but Tinubu” are growing louder once more. But unless that desperation is checked by clear judgment and critical scrutiny of who the “anyone” actually is, we risk repeating the same mistake. The emotional impulse that brought us Buhari and Tinubu could easily unleash a leader far worse.
This cycle persists because, as a nation battered by hardship, we often grasp at any promise of relief, no matter how hollow or deceptive. There’s no denying the deep desire of Nigerians to escape Tinubu’s collapsing economy, deepening authoritarianism, and the unchecked impunity of the ruling elite.
However, that desperation must not be mistaken for discernment. If we allow our present suffering to blind us, and we fail to critically examine the so-called alternatives, especially those presented by the ADC, we will fall into the same trap yet again. The past is prelude, and if we do not learn from it, we are doomed to repeat its failures.
This is why Nigeria cannot afford another catastrophic miscalculation in 2027. The stakes are simply too high. It is not enough to celebrate the formation of a new coalition; we must look beyond the ADC’s fanfare and examine, with clarity and honesty, the individuals seeking to run for president under its banner and their promise to “save Nigeria.”
That examination must begin with the two most likely ADC frontrunners, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi. They deserve a thorough and unsparing evaluation of their records, character, and ability to lead Nigeria forward. Our judgment must not be clouded by false equivalence, the assumption that simply being different from Tinubu automatically makes them better.
Sentiment, nostalgia, or frustration with the current regime cannot replace critical evaluation. If Nigeria is truly at a crossroads, as millions of long-suffering citizens believe, then we must ask hard, honest questions and measure these men not merely against each other, but against the scale of the crisis we face and the caliber of leadership this moment demands.
It is with this in mind that I urge ADC members and Nigerians to answer these ten questions objectively, without emotional bias, blind loyalty, or the influence of tribal politics, media packaging, and political spin.
- Do Atiku and Obi, whether separately or in any combination, possess the qualities needed to lead a country as complex and wounded as Nigeria? Do they offer more than recycled promises and political calculation?
- Do they have vision, a clear, transformative blueprint for Nigeria’s future that goes beyond vague reformist language and tackles structural injustice, economic dislocation, and social division?
- Do they possess the courage to challenge entrenched interests, break with corrupt political allies, and take unpopular but necessary decisions for the greater good?
- Do they demonstrate integrity, not just in rhetoric but in their political careers, businesses, alliances, and financial dealings? Can they be trusted to act in the best interest of the people when power tests their character?
- Do they have genuine nation-building capacity, the ability to unify a deeply polarized country, restore faith in the idea of Nigeria, and foster a shared sense of belonging across ethnic, religious, and regional lines?
- Do they have the problem-solving skills to confront Nigeria’s worsening insecurity, economic fragility, bloated federal bureaucracy, corrupt judiciary, and broken institutions, not with cosmetic or reckless changes but with innovative, evidence-based solutions?
- Do they possess the intellectual depth and knowledge to understand the root causes of Nigeria’s crises and to craft policies informed by sound analysis, not just populist instinct?
- Do they have the willpower, collaborative capacity, and strategic intent to restructure the federation in a way that meaningfully devolves power and grants greater autonomy to regions, states, and local governments?
- Do they have a coherent worldview, grounded in a firm understanding of global trends and technologies, that can position Nigeria intelligently in a rapidly changing international order?
- And above all, do they have the compassion, a genuine commitment to the lives and dignity of ordinary Nigerians, that can humanize power and shape decisions with empathy rather than self-interest?
These are not abstract virtues. In a nation on the brink, they are non-negotiable. Anything less is a continuation of the Tinubu decline but under a different name.
Given this urgent reality, if we are honest with ourselves and genuinely put the nation and its people first, then in light of the challenges we face and the leadership they require, the only truthful answer to all these questions when applied to Atiku and Obi is clear: no.
Neither Atiku nor Obi is fit for the job at this moment of national crisis. They are not crisis-time leaders. True leadership in a time of national crisis requires moral clarity, bold decision-making, the ability to unify a divided country, and the courage to confront entrenched interests without compromise—qualities neither man has demonstrated.
Because of this, neither of them can deliver the bold, transformative solutions our citizens urgently need. Choosing either would simply extend the cycle of failure, hand the presidency to Tinubu for another devastating four years, and rob the country of the fresh start it so desperately deserves.
This becomes even clearer when we strip away the surface-level theatrics. Once you pull back the veil of deceitful camaraderie and hollow grandstanding the ADC leaders stage on TV and social media, there is no real distinction between them and the current tormentor-in-chief, Tinubu. In Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi, Nigerians are once again being handed a false choice.
Beneath the rhetoric, they share the same moral bankruptcy, lack of vision, courage, problem-solving ability, and intellectual depth that have defined successive failed administrations in Nigeria. What they lack are the capabilities our nation needs to make tangible progress. In this important respect, they are not a real alternative to Tinubu. As I’ve stated before on this page, they are merely the flip side of the same counterfeit coin, offering nothing new, nothing bold, and nothing the country needs to break free from its prolonged decline.
These men are cut from the same worn-out cloth, products of a corrupt political establishment that has drained this country of progress, vision, and innovation. They are not reformers in any meaningful sense of the word. They lack the courage for radical transformation, the imagination to envision a different future, and the will to break from the past. Simply put, they are not agents of change.
Worse still, they were shaped by, and remain loyal to, the very system they now pretend to oppose. It is a system they helped construct, exploit, and protect for their own gain. They continue to benefit from its dysfunction and have no intention of dismantling it. Let me put it this way: they are not here to change the system; they are here to preserve it under a new label.
Everything about their politics confirms this. They serve the same elite networks, follow the same self-serving playbook, and shield the same broken institutions that have failed Nigerians for decades. Electing any of them is not progress; it is a return to the same destructive cycle that brought us here.
This reality leads to a deeper and more troubling question: in a nation of over 200 million people, how is it possible that Tinubu, Atiku, or Obi represent the best Nigeria can offer? These men are relics of a failed political order, built on the dangerous myth that only those fluent in manipulation, enriched by corruption, and willing to betray principle through compromise can rise to power. That lie has bled this country dry for far too long.
To move forward, we must reject that lie completely. We must cast these figures aside and begin building a new generation of leadership—one that is independent, untainted, and genuinely committed to the people. Anything less is a surrender to decay disguised as change.
I recognize that this assessment may appear harsh to those who let tribal and party loyalty color the lens through which they view these men. But my advice to such people is clear: loyalty must never come at the expense of truth, and sentiment must never replace the sober judgment a nation in crisis demands.
Atiku and Obi Are Already Compromised
The path that elevated Atiku and Obi as frontrunners within the ADC is already tainted. Reports of backroom deals, manipulated candidate selections, and secret pacts with governors and entrenched elite power blocs expose the truth, according to insiders who are knowledgeable of the internal negotiations but requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. These sources describe a process driven not by merit or public interest, but by political bargaining, personal ambition, and the consolidation of power behind closed doors.
Building on these revelations, the horse trading and political corruption surrounding the internal deals among ADC power brokers is more than a red flag. It is a clear warning, a canary in the coal mine. It reveals exactly what kind of leadership an Atiku-Obi or Obi-Atiku ticket would bring—a mercantile style of governance rooted in shady backroom deals, loyalty to corrupt networks, and politics driven by personal gain rather than public service.
The consequences of this pattern are painfully predictable. As past behavior suggests, they have already demonstrated a willingness to sell the nation short in pursuit of personal ambition and political advantage.
And if this is how they operate without power, imagine what they would do with it. The signs are unmistakable. They are not just unfit to lead. They are poised to be even worse than Tinubu.
Yet despite this bleak outlook, there is a way forward.
What ADC Must Do To Stand A Chance Against Tinubu
If the ADC coalition is truly serious about Nigeria’s future and genuinely committed to the interests of long-suffering citizens, it must break away from the same failed, serial presidential candidates who dominate its ranks. To Tinubu, Atiku and Obi are familiar opponents. He has defeated them before and believes he can do it again, more easily this time.
Yet despite this reality, the prevailing narrative within the ADC suggests that Tinubu is now vulnerable due to his poor performance and Nigerians’ eagerness to replace him. This assumption, however, conveniently overlooks several critical political realities that could shape the outcome of 2027 and determine whether real change is possible.
First, Tinubu wields the full power of incumbency, with control over state institutions, access to vast public and personal resources, and influence across the machinery of government that can be leveraged to maintain power.
I can hear the retort: but Buhari defeated Jonathan. Well, there’s a difference. Tinubu is not Jonathan. Tinubu is far more politically entrenched, tactically ruthless, and deeply networked across both state and non-state power structures. Unlike Jonathan, who was often seen as politically passive and vulnerable, Tinubu is a master of dark arts of political survival and will not go down without a calculated and aggressive fight.
Second, widespread voter apathy and disillusionment, especially among the youth and professionals in urban areas, threatens turnout and weakens the electoral strength of ADC or any opposition, making it easier for the status quo to prevail. Without significantly higher voter turnout, far above the 26.7 percent recorded in 2023, the path to the presidency will be extremely difficult for the ADC, especially if it fields uninspiring, inarticulate, and recycled politicians with no fresh appeal.
Third, the ruling party still holds considerable sway over the electoral process, including institutions like INEC, further tilting the playing field. This imbalance places the ADC at a serious disadvantage and means that only a bold, visionary, and broadly appealing candidate can overcome the systemic hurdles stacked against any opposition. To level the playing field, the ADC must also urgently press for reforms to address the flaws of the 2023 electoral process, including issues of transparency, logistical failures, and institutional bias.
Fourth and most importantly, the ADC has not yet presented a credible and inspiring alternative. Recycling familiar figures like Atiku and Obi, who have already been rejected by many Nigerians in previous elections, offers no clear break from the past. Fielding the same candidates repeatedly while expecting a different outcome is the very definition of political insanity.
What the moment demands is a fresh, principled, and unblemished outsider with a compelling agenda for change and progress, someone capable of uniting the country, reigniting hope, and taking the battle to Tinubu in ways Nigerians have never seen before. Real change will not come from familiar names with tired ideas.
Without such a candidate(s), the ADC risks becoming just another platform for insatiable ambition rather than a true vehicle for national renewal. Recycling the same political figures such as Atiku and Obi will discredit the coalition, hand Tinubu four more disastrous years, and push Nigeria deeper into crisis.
Unfortunately, the coalition does not appear ready to take a different path away from Atiku and Obi. Personal ambition and self-interest continue to outweigh national interest.
This is most evident in Atiku, who, despite being rejected by Nigerians in six elections, still clings to the illusion that a seventh attempt will succeed. Rather than step aside in the interest of national renewal, he seems prepared to drag the nation through yet another futile campaign.
Obi, likewise, is driven by an unearned sense of destiny and remains determined to seize the presidency at any cost, even if it means betraying allies, wrecking coalitions, or destabilizing the country. His 2023 momentum has faded, the Obidient movement is fractured, yet he refuses to step aside for a more capable outsider. Like Atiku, he continues to place personal ambition above the urgent need for national healing.
Compounding this risk is the party’s flawed electability logic. Some ADC leaders wrongly believe that if the 2023 scenario repeats, where Atiku and Obi’s combined votes surpassed Tinubu’s, they will automatically win in 2027. This thinking is not only dangerously simplistic but also profoundly misguided, as it ignores the dynamic nature of voter behavior, public trust, and political momentum.
Elections are not arithmetic. Voter behavior shifts with time, trust, turnout, and public mood. Many Obi supporters voted specifically against the old order represented by Atiku. Atiku loyalists likewise view Obi as inexperienced and “not one of us.” Merging them does not guarantee merged support, it risks alienating both.
Alongside internal reform, ADC must also confront Nigeria’s broken electoral system. This task is urgent and central to its success.
The process begins with a compromised and unreliable INEC. Electoral rules must be enforced with integrity. Polling stations must be equitably distributed. Materials must arrive on time and securely.
Votes must count and be counted accurately. Results must be transmitted transparently and without delay. Observers must have full access throughout the process. INEC officials must be vetted, monitored, and held accountable. Electoral courts must be independent and shielded from political interference.
Unless this entrenched machinery of rigging is dismantled, no coalition, no matter how idealistic, can defeat the incumbent. The system is designed to crush opposition before it reaches the ballot box. Ignoring this reality is not just naive. It is self-defeating.
To conclude, if nothing changes, Tinubu will stay in power for another four catastrophic years. Nigerians will continue to endure poverty, insecurity, and failed leadership.
The ADC still has a chance to change course, but it must find the courage to break from business as usual. It must choose a presidential candidate from outside its entrenched leadership who stands a better chance of defeating Tinubu. That said, I’m not holding my breath.
This is the moment for ADC to prove it is not just another platform for recycled politicians. If it fails, it will become nothing more than another false hope. And Nigerians’ yearning for change will once again be betrayed by those who promised change but delivered more of the same.
